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more likely that, whatever the economic effects, the illegal regime would continue on its present course and meanwhile the difficulty of ensuring
proper observance of sanctions would increase.
The question had been raised whether, in present circumstances, we could afford sanctions. Their economic cost was examined in OPD(67) 92,
which showed that the cost to the balance of payments was somewhere
between £30 million and £60 million this year, but nearer £30 million.
Although we had lost some £30 million in trade with Rhodesia we had
gained some £8 million from increased trade with Malawi and Zambia, and
it had to be recognised that a certain amount of British goods were
reaching Rhodesia through South Africa. The trading loss was therefore
less than might at first appear. Against this, we should certainly lose
a great deal at least in the short term in trade with African and
other countries if we appeared to give in to the illegal regime.
It was
difficult to say what results we could expect in the longer term by
persevering with our present policy. In this context it had been very disappointing to find from the careful examination made by the Minister of Power (OPD(67) 94) that there were grave difficulties in trying to
stop the supply of oil to Rhodesia through Mozambique. There remained the possibility that comprehensive mandatory sanctions might be introduced in the United Nations. There was no need for us to resist this, indeed
it would to some extent be helpful to us. But it was doubtful whether
the effect on the illegal regime would be significant because of the gaps constituted by South Africa and Portugal. The most significant addition
to the present selective list of mandatory sanctions would be nickel.
The Ministerial Committee on Rhodesia had already decided in
principle that action should be taken against the supply of British
television material to Rhodesia and against passports and travel and
communications, subject to the question of timing. Measures taken in
this context would have little or no economic effect, but would be
psychologically helpful in strengthening the sense of isolation in
Rhodesia.
Although exchanges with the illegal regime had been desirable in
the past he had come to the conclusion that now they merely aroused the suspicions of other Commonwealth countries without any compensating gains. It therefore seemed advisable to suspend them. It was however
important, before making any announcement, to explain the situation to
the South African Government and the Governor so that it was realised
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